By Abimbola Ogunnaike
The President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged through a highly contested presidential election and all things being equal he is expected to be sworn in as the 16th president of Nigeria comes 29 May this year.
The former Lagos State Governor, who contested under the platform of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) was declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for having the highest vote cast in the presidential election.
The INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, announced Tinubu as the winner at the International Collation Centre in Abuja on Wednesday, 1 March, 2023.
Yakubu announced that Tinubu scored a total of 8,794,726 votes to defeat his closest challenger, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party(PDP) who got 6,984, 520 votes and the Labour Party (LP)candidate, Mr Peter Obi, who polled 6,101,533 votes in the presidential election held nationwide on Saturday, 25 February, 2023
Tinubu also defeated the candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, who had 1, 496, 687 votes.
The naira redesigning policy almost truncated his presidential ambition at the last minute but barring any court pronouncement, he will be sworn in as President on 29 May, 2023 as Nigeria’s 16th President.
In this write up, thegazellenews.com takes a look at factors that aided Tinubu to emerge victorious at the just concluded presidential election.
Poor performance of Atiku in the South goes a long way in helping Tinubu to coast home to victory at the poll. Prior to the election, Atiku supporters had drummed it to the ears that cared to listen that 11 million votes will be cast for him. That did not materialised. However, what they failed to consider was that bulk of it came from the south.
Unlike the 2019 election, Atiku performed poorly in the South and the North Central region.
The Adamawa born politician failed to win a single state in North Central region while winningonly three states out of the 17 states in the south: Osun, Akwa-Ibom and Bayelsa. Even his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa failed to deliver his state, Delta to his principal.
Another factor that works for Tinubu was the unexpected victory he recorded in the North Central of Nigeria which several opinion polls before the election tilted towards candidate of the LP candidate, Obi. The ruling party pulled a surprise in the region by winning four states: Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue. It is still undisputed fact in Nigerian political history that no one has won the presidential election without winning the North Central.
PDP divided house also helped in propelling Tinubu to victory. It is a fact that Tinubu won the election against a fragmented opposition. In 2019, the trio of Abubakar Atiku, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso all worked together as one big family in PDP but they were defeated by the moving train of Muhammadu Buhari.
Despite Buhari’s victory, PDP maintained its stronghold in the Southeast and Southsouth and also put out good showings in Southwest and Northcentral.
On Saturday, 25 February, 2023, the APC instead faced Obi in LP, Kwankwaso in NNPP and Atiku in PDP. In addition, some members of the G5 Governors worked for the ruling party.
At the close of the poll, Kwankwaso maintained his hold on Kano, Obi held on to Southeast and Southsouth while Atiku had a good showing in the North. But despite individual performances in these areas it was not enough to prevent Tinubu from winning the poll.
Strong allies also helped the ruling party’s President-elect to achieve victory. The victory of Tinubu in Benue State could be the influence of Father Hyacinth Alia, the APC Governorship Candidate in Benue State.
In Sokoto State, Aliyu Wamakko did everything at his disposal to make sure that the Director General of the Atiku Campaign, Governor Aminu Tambuwal was unable to deliver the state to Atiku with a very big margin.
In Katsina, President Muhammadu Buhari had to show his ballot to voters to give them a signal on how to vote.
The presence of Godswill Akpabio in Akwa-Ibom helped to get the second position for APC while Governor Nyesom Wike pulled what could have been considered impossible—for the first time, APC won in Rivers State. Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde also ensured that Tinubu came ahead of other candidates in the poll in the state.
One other factor that also works in Tinubu’s factor was the ability to secure the second best in some states.
For example, in Kano State, the NNPP won the state with a wide margin; however, the margin between Tinubu and Atiku was over 380,000 votes. Considering that Atiku was the main contender to Tinubu in the Northwest, the second position was good enough.
In a four-horse race, winning your stronghold is important but how you perform in your opponent’s territory matters. That was the philosophy Tinubu worked greatly on and it worked out for him.
In the Northwest, Tinubu lost Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi States by slim margins to Atiku.
In Plateau, Akwa-Ibom, Nasarawa—he was also able to maintain second position.
All these factors contributed in no small measure for Tinubu to achieve the much needed victory at the Saturday, 25 February, 2023 presidential election held nationwide.
