Once hailed as the firebrand of Northern Nigerian politics, Nasir El-Rufai now finds himself in a curious twilight—boasting of a coalition that would sweep APC into the dustbin of history, only to be swept aside by the very electorate he presumed would rally behind him. His recent mobilization in Sokoto, where he declared APC “clannish and incompetent,” was meant to ignite a revolution. Instead, it fizzled like a damp matchstick.
A WhatsApp Tsunami Without Kinetic Energy
The opposition coalition—ADC, Atiku, El-Rufai, Peter Obi, Amaechi, Aregbesola—was hyped as a political tsunami. But the only waves it generated were on WhatsApp, Twitter, and Instagram. Nigerians watched the drama unfold online, then voted offline—at the polls where voices matter—with brutal clarity.
- ADC, the coalition’s adopted platform, scored a paltry 42 votes in the Ganye State Constituency of Adamawa—Atiku’s home turf. In the same election, APC secured 15,923 votes to win, while PDP followed closely with 15,794. A similar narrative played out in Kaduna and other battlegrounds. Of the 16 seats contested nationwide, APC won 12, APGA claimed 2, PDP managed 1, and NNPP took 1. The coalition, despite its noise, won none.
It was a digital ambush without combustion. The coalition turned out at the polls lacking the stamina to ignite the national renewal they so loudly advertised.
Despite Tough Times, Nigerians Chose Stability
Yes, Tinubu’s reforms have been tough—subsidy removal, inflation, and restructuring—but voters saw the scaffolding of a long-term rebuild.
- Kaduna APC cited improvements in security, rural infrastructure, and human capital.
- Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, though painful, is seen as laying the foundation for inclusive growth.
Ajibola Bashiru, APC National Secretary, put it succinctly: “Before Tinubu, states borrowed to pay salaries. Now, there’s a path to fiscal sanity.”
Though not yet translated into substantial reduction in cost of living, voters saw stability—and believed improvement in living standards is the natural sequel.
Paper Tigers and the Illusion of Ferocity
The coalition strutted like tigers but fell like origami. Nigerians rejected the politics of bitterness and distraction. They chose depth over shallowness, achievement over failure.
The coalition of everything was defeated by the party of something significant.
El-Rufai: The Disruptor Disrupted
El-Rufai’s political journey—from PDP to CPC to APC to SDP to ADC—is an allegory of restless ambition. His critics call it opportunism; his defenders say it’s conviction. Either way, Nigerians seem tired of the drama.
- Once viewed as a “political institution” in Kaduna, his relevance now feels spectral.
- His tweet promising a comeback in 2027—“Save this tweet”—now reads like a prophecy about self-eclipse.
The Delusion of Grandeur
El-Rufai once played a central role in Northern Nigerian politics—disruptor, reformer, provocateur.
But last Saturday, along with his fellow sojourners, he was cast as an understudy in a play Nigerians had already seen—and rejected. The people didn’t just vote; they rewrote the script.
Closing Punchline
This wasn’t just a mid-term election. It was a referendum on relevance. Nigerians refused to rewind the national clock. And if this was a dress rehearsal for 2027, the coalition might need more than a new manifesto—they need substance, a message with resonance, and maybe a megaphone that works offline.
