By Bayo Onanuga
We are constrained as a matter of public record to react to another farcical Presidential Election Poll result released by an organisation that calls itself Nextier, a public policy advisory firm that overnight turned itself into a Nigerian Gallup Poll or Ipsos.
We are reacting for the sake of unsuspecting Nigerians, so that they are not misled by the Patrick Okigbo-led organisation, which appears to have the agenda to create confusion and chaos in our country.
For a start, Nigerians should know that promoters of Nextier are members of Mr. Peter Obi’s Presidential Campaign Council and active campaigners for the Labour Party Presidential Candidate.
Any poll conducted by such intensely partisan and prejudicially tainted organisation should be taken with a pinch of salt.
This is apart from the fact that the sample size of the so-called poll and methodology employed cannot stand any integrity test.
It is quite ludicrous that Nextier Poll that projects a clean sweep of the South East Region at over 90% of registered votes also puts Peter Obi ahead of APC Presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the six South West States including Lagos.
Assuming without absolutely conceding that Peter Obi will enjoy home advantage in his part of the country, we then wonder why the pollsters at Nextier, if they have any modicum of respect for the intellect of Nigerians, thought the factors that will propel landslide victory for Obi in South east will not work for the APC candidate in his own South West base.
Nextier Pollsters also put Labour Party ahead of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the Peoples Democratic Party Candidate in his home state of Adamawa.
How more ridiculous can Nextier Pollsters get?
Nextier Pollsters called the entire South South Region for Labour Party at 60% in Akwa-Ibom, the base of Chairman of PDP presidential campaign council.
The partisan pollsters gave Bayelsa 62.9% to Labour Party and also claimed LP would win Delta 65.9 %, home of PDP Vice Presidential Candidate.
The jesters in Nextier also claimed Obi would win Rivers by 77.8%, Edo 76.9% and Cross Rivers 63.2%. It did not matter to them that in these states, Labour Party has no serving councillor in any ward.
The summary of Nextier’s so-called face-to-face nationwide poll is that Peter Obi is the preferred candidate of 37% of Nigerians with a conclusion that the Presidential election will go into a run-off.
We make bold to say this is wishful thinking without any basis in fact and reality.
It is important to alert Nigerians and the international community that the Pollsters at Nextier are working for the Labour Party and their poll results are all cooked up, far away from reality.
We suspect that their first and second fallacious poll results are pretext to cause political crisis and riots in Nigeria after the February 25. They may be preparing ground for violent protest by Obi supporters who will allege rigging when their candidate is roundly defeated at the election, in which he is not likely to even come a distant 3rd.
We want to state categorically that Peter Obi is not a major contender in the coming presidential election in Nigeria and no fantasy and fairytale poll can change the material facts.
We want to put it on record that Nextier Poll is useless for three reasons:
First, the sample size of 3,000 is statistically too insignificant in an election with over 93 million registered voters and admits greater margins of error than claimed.
Second, the distribution of the sample neither reflects voter demographics nor variations in voters turnout across states.
Third, the main objective of Nextier Poll is to report a predetermined conclusion so that when Labour Party loses by wide margin, its rabid supporters can embark on another violent protests, similar to the destructive #ENDSARS riots of 2020.
Bayo Onanuga is the Director, Media and Publicity
APC Presidential Campaign Council
February 5, 2023