Nigeria has dropped to fourth place among Africa’s largest economies, according to newly released 2024 GDP data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), spotlighted in a report by Afreximbank Research.
Once regarded as the continent’s economic giant, Nigeria now trails behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
South Africa has reclaimed its position at the top with a projected GDP of $400.19 billion, followed closely by Egypt at $383.11 billion and Algeria at $264.91 billion. Algeria’s rise has been attributed to strong public investment and surging hydrocarbon revenues.
In stark contrast, Nigeria’s GDP has dropped to $187.64 billion, reflecting the toll of policy inconsistency, currency devaluation, and slow-paced reforms.
“This shift underscores the deep-rooted macroeconomic imbalances Nigeria continues to grapple with.
“Despite its vast population and resource base, Nigeria’s foreign exchange challenges and inflationary pressures have severely weakened its economic footing,” Afreximbank posted on its official X (formerly Twitter) account.
The Chief Executive of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, shared these concerns in the company’s 2025 economic outlook.
“The naira’s devaluation—from ₦450 to over ₦1,700 per dollar—has led to a loss of over $300 billion in economic value,” he stated, warning that recent economic reforms have failed to deliver sustained growth.
The IMF forecasts Nigeria’s GDP growth to decelerate to 3.0 percent in 2025 and further down to 2.7 percent in 2026, as stagflation and declining productivity persist.
The removal of fuel subsidies and sharp interest rate hikes, have placed added pressure on households and businesses, while government social safety programs remain insufficient.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s debt profile continues to worsen. Public borrowing has crossed the $100 billion mark, with debt servicing costs projected to hit ₦16.3 trillion in the 2025 national budget—exceeding the combined allocations for health, education, infrastructure, security, and defense.
Economists have raised alarms over the government’s fiscal priorities, accusing it of prioritizing debt repayments over capital investment.
With the money supply rising by 50 per cent year-on-year to ₦108 trillion, efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to tame inflation have faltered, further eroding investor confidence.
As Africa’s economic landscape undergoes a shift, Nigeria’s decline in the rankings reflects more than just numbers. Analysts warn that without clear, credible, and sustained reforms, the country risks sinking deeper into economic stagnation.
