Nigeria’s public finance system has become increasingly effective at tracking government expenditure but remains poorly equipped to determine whether billions of naira spent annually are actually improving citizens’ lives, the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership has warned.
The warning is contained in the latest edition of the Athena Policy Pulse, titled “Beyond Transparency: Building Results Accountability in Nigeria’s Public Finance System,” authored by Izuchukwu Anyanwu and Chinaza Igwe.
The report arguesd that the central challenge confronting Nigeria’s public-finance system is no longer simply how much government spends, but whether public expenditure produces verifiable and sustained public value.
According to the report, Nigeria’s 2026 Federal Budget stands at ₦27.5 trillion, while about 41.6 per cent of federally retained revenue was consumed by debt servicing in 2025.
It noted that under the 2024–2026 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, more than ₦5.9 trillion was allocated to health, ₦7.4 trillion to education, over ₦10 trillion to infrastructure and approximately ₦5.8 trillion to defence and security.
Yet, the Centre said, increased financial allocations have not consistently translated into corresponding improvements in healthcare access, learning outcomes, transport efficiency or security conditions.
“The question is no longer whether government is spending, but whether public spending produces verifiable, sustained public value,” the report argues.
It identified the weakness as an institutional problem rather than merely a fiscal one, pointing to the continued dominance of input-based budgeting, weak links between previous performance and new appropriations, and incentives for ministries, departments and agencies to demonstrate budget execution rather than measurable results.
The report also faulted the disconnect between financial management systems and sectoral performance data, while noting that auditing remains largely focused on compliance rather than determining whether public resources delivered value for money.
The Centre therefore insisted that Nigeria has built what it described as a “transparency architecture without building a results-accountability architecture.”
To address the gap, the report proposed four major institutional reforms.
It called for the publication of a results annex alongside the annual Appropriation Bill, with programme allocations linked directly to measurable outcomes.
It also recommended that ministries, departments and agencies be required to submit ex-post performance briefs before new capital projects are approved within the MTEF cycle.
The Centre further urged the expansion of value-for-money audits, with findings incorporated into subsequent budget preparation.
It also proposed upgrading the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) so that it can interface with sectoral outcome systems and evolve from primarily a transaction-recording platform into a broader results-accountability mechanism.
The report identified the 2027–2029 MTEF as a critical opportunity for Nigeria to change the way public expenditure is planned and assessed.
It said embedding performance information into budgeting, appropriation and auditing would determine whether the country’s public-finance system becomes a genuine instrument for delivering public value or remains largely focused on expenditure management.
The Athena Centre’s findings come against the backdrop of persistent public concern over the relationship between Nigeria’s expanding budgets and the quality of services delivered to citizens.
The report’s central message is therefore a shift from asking “How much was spent?” to asking “What changed because the money was spent?”—a question it says must become central to Nigeria’s budgeting, legislative oversight and audit processes.
